Cepr Recession Dating

Feb 24, 2016. We use a similar definition to the US business cycle dating committee of the NBER and the Euro Area business cycle dating committee of the CEPR. Using the timing convention described above, recessions are the period from a peak to a trough of economic activity. A decline in economic activity is visible. Recoveries by Antonio Fatás, Ilian Mihov :: SSRN
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This guess is based on the fact that in all fourteen recessions since 1929, the monthly year-on-year rate of growth of the stock market changed direction an average of 4.4 months before the end of the recession, as shown in Table 1. Table 1. Recession dating and changes of direction in stock market and unemployment.

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CEPR Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee

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